전일 FOMC이후 미국채 금리는 하락했고 주식시장도 소폭 조정을 받았다. 그런데, 한국 주식/채권 시장에서는 비교적 큰 폭의 움직임이 관찰되었는데...FOMC Statement를 한번 제대로 분석해보자. 아래는 8/10일자 statement와 6/23일자 statement이다. 일단 두 statement를 모두 읽어 보자.
6/23일자 FOMC에 있었으나 8/10일자에서는 빠지거나 변화된 문구는 6/23일자에, 6/23일자에는 없었으나 8/10일자에 새로 추가된 문구는 8/10일자에 노란색 박스로 표시를 했다.
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Release Date: August 10, 2010
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually, but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated.
Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters and, with substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
To help support the economic recovery in a context of price stability, the Committee will keep constant the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities at their current level by reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in longer-term Treasury securities.1 The Committee will continue to roll over the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities as they mature.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.
Voting against the policy was Thomas M. Hoenig, who judges that the economy is recovering modestly, as projected. Accordingly, he believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted and limits the Committee's ability to adjust policy when needed. In addition, given economic and financial conditions, Mr. Hoenig did not believe that keeping constant the size of the Federal Reserve's holdings of longer-term securities at their current level was required to support a return to the Committee's policy objectives.
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.
Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh.
Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability, while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.
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먼저 FOMC Statement의 구조를 보면 아래와 같이 5단락으로 되어 있음을 알 수 있다. 단락별로 미국 경제에 대한 FOMC의 인식의 월간 변화를 살펴보자.
1)성장:
6월에는 경기와 고용 시장의 회복을 언급하며 시작하였으나 8월에는 최근의 둔화를 먼저 언급하였다. 미국애들 글 쓰는 것이 두괄식으로 주제를 앞에다 놓고 뒤에 근거를 붙이는 것이 일반적이므로 일단 Fed는 일단 미국 경제를 바라보는 시각을 낙관적 분위기 -> 비관적 분위기로 바꾸었다고 판단된다.
the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually
---> the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months
한편, 6월에는 business spending증가가 significantly증가했다고 했으나 8월에는 이 문구를 뺐고 경기 회복 속도에 대해서도 6월에는 be moderate하다고 했으나 8월에는 be more modest하다고 예상되는 회복의 속도 또한 늦추었다.
2)물가:
6월, 8월 모두 인플레이션에 대해서는 동일한 문구를 유지했다. inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.
3)결론:
6월, 8월 모두 상당기간, an extended period 동안 exceptionally lower levels of the federal fundrate을 가지고 가겠다고 결론을 내림.
4)향후 어떻게 하겠다:
6월, 8월 모두 앞으로 경기 상황 지속적으로 관찰하면서 추가적인 조치들도 고려할 것이다라는 단락이 있지만 8월에는 추가적인 부양책에 대한 구체적인 언급이 들어왔다. 즉, fed드가 보유하고 있는 agency, mbs의 원리금 도래액을 미국 국채에 재투자 하겠다는 추가적인 양적조치를 발표하였다.
5)누가찬성하고 반대했나
캔자스 city 연준 총재인 Mr. Hoenig이 fed rate 유지에 반대했고 그 이유를 간단히 써 놓았다. 나머지는 모두 찬성.
*마치며
금리, 주가, 환율 모두 생각보다 많이 움직였다. 국채선물이 30틱 상승하면서 그 동안의 약세를 만회했고 반면 주식시장은 20포인트 이상 하락하면서 1800선 고지에서 멀어졌다. 원달러 또한 1180원을 다시 넘어서면서 글로벌 달러 약세에도 불구하고 달러 대비 약세를 3일째 이어가고 있다. 굳이 이유를 찾자면 어제 미국 시장인데...FOMC Statement를 다시 한번 곱씹어 보면 어떨까 싶다.
